ARMAGEDDON INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY


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Leverage and Asset Bubbles: Averting Armageddon with Chapter 11?

Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Academic Skip to main content. Search Start Search. Choose your country or region Close. To purchase, visit your preferred ebook provider. Powaski Ronald E.

Von Laue, Clark University "A monumental book Also of Interest. Return to Armageddon Ronald E. Consequently, very little work has been done to develop an effective response. Developing such an understanding will require coordination with other nations through both diplomatic and intelligence channels. The effort should include collecting and exchanging information on: the scope and nature of the problem; the motivation and behavior of sellers, buyers, insiders, facilitators, and middlemen; sources of materials and capabilities; and the role of networks, in particular elements of organized crime.

Effective action is possible only once the international community is armed with a more precise perception of the threat. Such guidelines will be essential to broaden and deepen information sharing between states, avoid sting operations that might stimulate a market in nuclear materials that otherwise would not exist, and ensure efforts to uncover black marketers and nuclear materials are not perceived as provocations directed against another state. These thorny issues have long impaired international law enforcement and intelligence cooperation.

They must be addressed directly, with as much transparency as sovereignty allows. Experience amply demonstrates that a black market-related investigation pursued by one state, involving only ad hoc and limited coordination with other affected states, invariably produces mistrust, finger pointing, and a diminished capacity to recover loose nuclear materials and neutralize trafficking networks.

As a part of the international effort, development of an internationally shared forensics catalogue, containing nuclear samples from all corners of the world, would buttress collaborative law enforcement and intelligence cases. Such a program would integrate the intelligence efforts to curtail smuggling networks with steps to implement air-tight global nuclear security.

It could also facilitate strengthening legal penalties for trafficking of these materials to the extent that it might be effectively deterred.


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Second, within the United States, we need to form a specialized team, dedicated to investigating and resolving cases of nuclear smuggling. The team must be charged with learning: what facilities leaked the material in question; who stole it and how; what networks were involved in trafficking it; whether and perhaps which factory officials, border guards, or police may have abetted the smuggling; and who is looking to buy weapons-grade material. It should be based in the National Clandestine Service of the Central Intelligence Agency, because the problem is deeply rooted in human intelligence.

It must, however, include all skill sets necessary to accomplish the mission—diplomatic, legal, and scientific.

Team members should be free from all other duties, have access to resources and information that already exist in the intelligence community, and receive a full mandate to pursue activities necessary to accomplish their mission at home and abroad. In general, the team should augment and help integrate, but not replace other activities conducted by individual agencies.

This team should systematically broaden and deepen intelligence liaison cooperation against nuclear smuggling. Strategic engagement with international intelligence and law enforcement organizations is lacking today, and closer coordination is essential. It is particularly important improve coordination among the Nonproliferation Treaty nuclear weapons states—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Third, the International Atomic Energy Agency should foster an ethic of disclosure and cooperation to advance the work of detecting and interdicting nuclear smuggling rings, as well as plugging security holes at nuclear facilities. More opprobrium must attach to stonewalling an investigation of recovered material than to admitting lapses in nuclear security. The agency must also continue to improve its analytical capabilities. Developing greater substantive expertise and analytical tradecraft will enable the agency play a more authoritative role.

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The Agency should also be given additional resources to strengthen its ability to collect overt information that may reveal nuclear networks. These steps to improve our national and international capacities to defeat nuclear smuggling are vital.

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But, most of all, we need a change of mindset, greater focus, and a sense of urgency. Our collective inability to investigate thoroughly and resolve cases of nuclear smuggling amounts to criminal negligence.

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Unless we can be as ruthless in examining the causes of failures in nuclear security and preventing them in the future as are parachutists in assessing and correcting their errors, we will remain vulnerable to a fatal malfunction. This is intolerable, because when it comes to the threat posed by a nuclear black market, we are all hanging from the same parachute. Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and William H. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA Quarterly Journal: International Security.

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The Geopolitics of Information. People Power Is Rising in Africa. The authors analyze the trend of nonviolent overthrows of dictatorships in Africa. The Triangle in the Long Game. Summer Newsletter Photos. Photos from the Summer Belfer Center newsletter. Authors: William H.

Tobey Rolf Mowatt-Larssen July 26, This conference brings together established scholars and early career researchers to examine a range of military, social, diplomatic, cultural and political historical topics ranging from the Normandy campaign of , and combat motivation to propaganda, and aspects of the Holocaust. All papers place their topics in a broader comparative context. For more information contact Jane MacLaren j. Book Now. University Life Overview. Social Life Why Wolverhampton? Students' Union.

March to Armageddon - Ronald E. Powaski - Oxford University Press

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